The Rundown - Oscars 2018

Ah yes, the time has come. The Super Bowl for movie fans. While many hipsters and woke folk have let out their war cries, "I gave up on the Oscars a long time ago!" they shout, "The Academy Awards haven't been good in YEARS," they declare, "These awards shows are so politically swayed," they retort with, there is but a gathering of folks like myself who demand their irrelevant opinions be heard. Cinephiles and movie nerds scramble to social media as fast as possible to yell things about one underdog being snubbed, while another seasoned veteran is wanked by the Academy yet again; older folks are given recognition simply because "they're long overdue" while other edgy, innovative film-involved participants are "robbed" after being nominated "for the hundredth time," if nominated at all.

  At the end of the day folks, it's fun so suck it up. It's nothing more than a three-hour, hoity-toity get together of drunk people in black tie feeling special for a night (referring to the folks at home watching of course). It's an honor for these film creatives to be recognized as much as it's a privilege for moviegoers to sit on their couch and eat appetizers and down booze as they yell obscenities at their TV screen. It is the fuel for our film flame; a place where regulars like myself can feel important, if just for a mere glimpse of a moment, because for once we can speak out on a subject where we moviegoers who have wasted away for years with eyes glued to our screens, will sound legitimately educated, if not be admired, if not completely hazed for being followers, sheeple, or Armond-White-level of being blind, ignorant and "wrong." Sure, film is subjective but where's the fun if you can't debate (il)logical opinions? Then again, some folks are a little sensitive on the subject matter, so be warned before you pick a fight with a filmgoer.

All that nonsense said, this has been one of the best critical years for film in recent memory. I'm pleased with most of what I've seen be nominated. So now I'm gonna dish it all out: Thoughts, reviews, opinions and predictions. It's gonna be grand; a gay ol' time. We'll see how wrong we all are, come the end of the night.


LET'S START THE SHOW, DAMMIT





First, let's go over the Best Pic noms.
(Click title to find embedded review)

Ranked based on favoritism
(Because adoration and craft often need to be separated)

#9. Call Me By Your Name
#8. Darkest Hour
#7. Lady Bird
#6. The Post
#5. The Shape of Water
#4. Phantom Thread
#3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
#2. Dunkirk
#1. Get Out

Ranked based on criticism
(Because let's be honest, these are the most legitimately well crafted films)

#9. Call Me By Your Name
#8. Get Out
#7. Lady Bird
#6. Darkest Hour
#5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
#4. The Post
#3. Dunkirk
#2. Phantom Thread
#1. The Shape of Water


For the record...
I don't hate CMBYN, I just find it remarkably underwhelming.

For s's & g's...
Here's every movie I watched in 2017.

THE PREDICTIONS

**Disclaimer**

Straight up, there's some nominees and award categories I ain't even gonna touch up on. Some of the categories I don't feel educated on the matter, certain films I have not seen, and other nominees I just don't wanna fake the effort.

Thank you for accepting my ignorance.

Best Original Screenplay:

“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

WHO WILL WIN: Get Out
WHY: It's about as original as screenplays get

RUNNER UP: Three Billboards

Best Adapted Screenplay:

“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

WHO WILL WIN: Call Me by Your Name

WHO SHOULD WIN: The Disaster Artist
WHY: Reading Sestero's description of Tommy Wiseau is one thing. Seeing Wiseau come to life is another.

Best Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

WHO WILL WIN: Allison Janney

WHO SHOULD WIN: Allison Janney

RUNNER UP: Laurie Metcalf

Best Cinematography:

“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

WHO WILL WIN: The Shape of Water

WHO SHOULD WIN: Blade Runner 2049

WHY: If there's one award BR2049 deserves, it's this one (and Deakins is overdue)

Best Film Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

WHO WILL WIN: Dunkirk

WHO SHOULD WIN: Dunkirk

RUNNER UP: Baby Driver
WHY: The editing of Edgar Wright's films have been consistently flawless, regardless of Baby Driver being formulaic AF.

Best Sound Mixing:

“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

WHO MIGHT WIN: Baby Driver
WHY IT'S BS: The Academy favors music driven movies

WHO WILL MOST LIKELY WIN: Dunkirk

BUT LET'S BE HONEST: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

DON'T BE RIDICULOUS: If we're gonna favor anything original about Star Wars, it's the choice and mix of Sound Effects.

Best Visual Effects:

“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,”  Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

WHO WILL WIN: War for the Planet of the Apes

WHO SHOULD WIN: Blade Runner 2049

WHY DO YOU KEEP WANKING BLADE RUNNER: BECAUSE IT'S A VISUAL MASTERPIECE, YOU UNCULTURED SWINES

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

WHO WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell
RUNNER UP: Willem Dafoe

WHO SHOULD WIN: Richard Jenkins

SNUBBED: Michael Stuhlbarg, "Call Me By Your Name"
I THOUGHT YOU WEREN'T A CMBYN FAN: Michael Stuhlbarg was the singular highlight of CMBYN and his speech at the end makes up for all the nonsense that came before.

Best Documentary Feature:

“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen

“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes

WHO WILL WIN: Faces Places

POTENTIAL TO STEAL: Icarus
WHO SHOULD WIN: Strong Island

Best Foreign Language Film:

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

WHO WILL WIN: A Fantastic Woman

POTENTIAL TO STEAL: The Insult
WHO SHOULD WIN: The Square
SNUBBED: Raw

Best Original Score:

“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

WHO WILL WIN: “The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat

WHO SHOULD WIN: “The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat

SNUBBED: “Blade Runner 2049,” Hans Zimmer

Best Director:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

WHO WILL WIN: Guillermo del Toro

WHO SHOULD WIN: Guillermo del Toro
ONE DAY: Paul Thomas Anderson

SNUBBED: “The Post,” Steven Spielberg

Best Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

WHO WILL WIN: Frances McDormand

WHO SHOULD WIN: Sally Hawkins
SNUBBED: Brooklynn Prince, “The Florida Project”

Best Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

WHO WILL WIN: Gary Oldman

WHO SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman

SNUBBED: James Franco, "The Disaster Artist"
SNUBBED: Robert Pattinson, "Good Time"

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

WHO WILL WIN: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

RUNNER UP: “The Shape of Water”
WHO SHOULD WIN: “Phantom Thread”

WISHFUL THINKING: “Get Out”
SNUBBED: “The Florida Project”
SNUBBED: “Good Time”

So there you have it, folks. 

Was this basically a loosely put together list of the most-likely winners with some calculated suggestions? Of course. But this is also the most unpredictable Oscar year since what, 2010? All the nominees are pretty legit and there's potential for some dope results.

So now that DD-Lewis is tapping out, until Leo comes back from Nat Geo to steal the gold once again, let us enjoy our irrelevant banter for one more night.

Cheers, y'all